Even more will seek non-Irish tobacco sources if excise duty rises in next week’s budget, says poll
More than half of smokers are now sourcing their cigarettes from outside the State.
Even more say they will turn to non-Irish sources for tobacco, including the black market, if prices rise again after the budget, according to Amárach polling commissioned by Retailers Against Smuggling (RAS).
Ireland has the highest cigarette prices in the European Union, largely due to excise duty hikes. A pack of 20 cigarettes costs between €16.70 and €20.85, depending on the brand.
Cigarette excise duty is expected to rise again in next week’s budget, with the Government likely to argue it is a necessary public health measure to discourage smoking and prevent young people from taking it up.
The Amárach poll found 55pc of smokers now buy some or all of their tobacco outside the State.
One in four now buy exclusively abroad or in duty-free, more than treble the figure recorded in March last year.
A further 43pc said they would turn to non-Irish tobacco if prices rise again after next Tuesday’s budget. This includes buying abroad, in duty-free or through other informal channels.
Retailers said the poll revealed a dramatic shift away from the domestic market.
Only 19pc of consumers said they would continue buying from Irish retailers – less than half the proportion who said they would source their tobacco elsewhere.
Excise duty on a pack of cigarettes in Spain is approximately €3, compared with almost €11 in Ireland. Across the EU, the average total tax on a pack of cigarettes is around €6, while in Ireland it is close to €14.
RAS said the polling should be a wake-up call for the Government, and showed Ireland’s tobacco market was facing a growing exodus of consumers, sales and tax revenue.
In 2025, illegal cigarettes cost the Exchequer an estimated €648m in lost revenue, according to Revenue’s latest Illegal Tobacco Products Research Survey.
RAS estimates this figure jumps to €845m when roll-your-own tobacco is included.
“These figures should set alarm bells ringing in Government ahead of the budget,” RAS national spokesperson Phillip Craddock said.
“They had a smoking target rate of 5pc by 2025. According to Healthy Ireland, it currently stands at 17pc.”
Mr Craddock said if tobacco taxes went up again, it would push people towards cheaper and easily accessible sources.
This would undermine efforts to reduce smoking rates, while fuelling criminal gangs in the black market.
“Consumers are more likely to go looking for cheaper cigarettes outside the State than they are to cut back or quit. Just 19pc say they would continue buying from Irish retailers. That should be a huge warning,” Mr Craddock said.
“RAS is calling on the Government to avoid exacerbating the situation further and focus instead on tackling the illegal tobacco trade and proper enforcement measures to protect legitimate Irish retailers.”
RAS wants the Government to freeze taxes on tobacco products in Budget 2027, recognising the growing scale of non-Irish duty-paid and illicit tobacco.
It also wants increased resources for Revenue enforcement and detection, particularly at ports, airports and other key points of entry.